Studios have fixed budgets to spend on promoting upcoming movies. These budgets have traditionally been allocated by media markets according to size. That is, the bigger the market, the more spent in that market for promotion. This rule of thumb is outdated and leaves much room for improvement.
Social media analysis can be used to concentrate advertising and promotional spending on those markets where it will have the greatest impact, and away from markets where the impact will be negligible.
For example, people in New York might be tweeting that they are eager to see a particular movie set for release in a couple of weeks. Quantifying and calibrating these tweets can be used to help forecast the box office revenues for the movie in New York. If the forecasted sales are close to a maximum for the category of movie, that means any additional spending on promotion in New York is not going to have an effect.
If there is little or negative activity on Twitter for the same movie in, say, Miami, then the distributor can concentrate spending there to increase awareness of the movie, or to counter negative associations the moviegoing public has. In that case, additional spending will have a big impact on sales.
Ttwick has added Twitter analysis to quantitative box office forecasting models to achieve 95% accuracy. These forecasts would be a big improvement over the current methods used to allocate promotional budgets.
About Ralf Voellmer
I’m a document specialist, writing and editing stuff ranging from blogs to marketing copy to contracts. I look for those ‘Aha!’ moments, when I see something others missed, or when exactly the right turn of words comes to me. I worked at Deutsche Bank, developing mutual fund structures for international clients. Then I did the same thing as an independent consultant for many years. Since 2008, I’ve also been developing projects that apply new investment techniques to areas outside the mainstream: music, one-off deals, specialized forecasting, and my favorite - movies. Right now I’m working on ttwick.com, a social media intelligence site. Whenever I get the chance, I take long rides on my motorcycle.